ICICI Securities lifts Adani Green target 25% after Q1 EBITDA rises 30%
ICICI Securities retained its Add rating on Adani Green Energy, raising its target price to ₹1,650 as June-quarter revenue and EBITDA each grew 30% year-on-year, supported by 4.4 GW of capacity additions and battery-storage commissioning.
What happened
ICICI Securities retained its Add rating on Adani Green Energy and raised its target price 25% after Q1 revenue and EBITDA each rose 30% year-on-year, supported
Key facts
- Target price raised to Rs 1,650 from Rs 1,315
- Implied upside: about 25%
- Revenue: Rs 4,400 crore, up 30% YoY
- EBITDA: Rs 4,000 crore, up 30% YoY
- Run-rate EBITDA: Rs 17,000 crore
- Capacity addition: 4.4 GW YoY
- PAT: Rs 840 crore, up 19% YoY
- Potential renewables capacity at Khavda: up to 30 GW
- Capex-to-EBITDA ratio: about 7.5x
- Valuation multiple: 16x
Why this matters
The combination of 4.4 GW of added capacity and storage commissioning strengthens Adani Green’s case as a strategic clean-energy partner or acquisition-screening benchmark.
What to watch
- Quarterly commissioned capacity versus the 4.4 GW addition pace.
- EBITDA per MW, plant availability factor and curtailment levels.
- Battery-storage operating performance, contract wins and realized merchant/peak-power pricing.
- Net debt, interest cost, credit-rating actions and access to project finance.
- Transmission connectivity, land approvals and renewable-energy policy or tariff changes.
- Additional broker target upgrades, estimate revisions or institutional ownership changes.
- Accelerate commissioning of under-construction solar, wind and hybrid projects to convert pipeline capacity into operating EBITDA.
- Use battery-storage commissioning to pursue higher-value peak-power, firm-power and grid-balancing contracts.
- Prioritize debt reduction, refinancing and longer-tenor funding to prevent growth capex from increasing leverage concerns.
- Highlight capacity utilization, transmission readiness and signed power-purchase agreements in upcoming disclosures.