India beauty market seen nearing $42B by FY31; Nykaa, Honasa gain brokerage backing
Aditya Birla Money forecasts India’s beauty and personal-care market will grow from $23 billion in FY26 to $42 billion by FY31. The brokerage initiated Buy coverage on Nykaa and Honasa, citing digital discovery, repeat demand and the need for profitable scale as key differentiators.
What happened
Nykaa · India’s beauty and personal-care market may nearly double to $42 billion by FY31, aided by digital discovery and organised retail. Aditya Birla Money
Key facts
- India BPC market projected to grow from $23 billion in FY26 to $42 billion by FY31
- More than 12% projected CAGR
- India projected to become fourth-largest BPC market by 2030
- BPC shoppers projected to rise from 140 million in FY26 to 200 million by FY30
- Nykaa target price: ₹390
- Honasa target price: ₹635
- Gen Z and Gen Alpha represented about 32% of BPC spending in FY24 and may reach around 50% by FY31
- Online BPC share projected to increase from 25% in FY26 to 34% by FY31
- More than 150 new-age BPC brands may exceed ₹1 billion revenue by FY31
- Only 10–15 brands may cross ₹10 billion revenue by FY31
Why this matters
The forecast strengthens the case for acquisitions or partnerships in high-repeat beauty categories, consumer data, creator-led discovery and scalable omnichannel capabilities.
What to watch
- Nykaa beauty GMV growth versus marketing spend, repeat purchase trends, retail-media revenue and EBITDA-margin progression.
- Honasa revenue growth, offline-channel mix, gross margin, inventory days, brand-level profitability and pace of cash burn reduction.
- Quick-commerce beauty SKU expansion, exclusive launches and discounting intensity from Blinkit, Zepto, Swiggy Instamart and large marketplaces.
- Premium skincare, sunscreen, fragrance and dermocosmetic category growth relative to mass personal care.
- Urban consumption indicators, discretionary-spend trends, ad-cost inflation and imported cosmetic input/currency pressures.
- Any tightening of cosmetics quality, labeling, influencer-advertising or product-safety regulations.
- Nykaa is likely to prioritize retail-media monetization, loyalty/personalization, premium brand partnerships and omnichannel store productivity over pure GMV expansion.
- Honasa is likely to rationalize weaker SKUs and channels, concentrate investment behind high-repeat hero brands, and use offline distribution to reduce dependence on digital acquisition.
- Quick-commerce platforms and large horizontal marketplaces are likely to deepen beauty assortments, increasing pressure on delivery speed, sampling and promotional intensity.
- Global and Indian FMCG players may increase acquisitions, incubator investments and influencer-led brand launches as the category’s addressable market expands.
- Beauty suppliers, packaging firms, contract manufacturers and specialty retail landlords could see second-order demand gains, especially in premium and dermocosmetic segments.