India gold imports may fall 15% in September as festive buyers turn to old-gold exchanges
Jewellers expect high prices and tighter discretionary spending to push old-gold exchanges to 60–70% of festive-season business, from 45–50% currently. India imported nearly 45 tonnes of gold in August, while gold has slipped below ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams.
What happened
India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA) · India’s gold imports may drop 15% in September after PM Modi urged consumers to curb unnecessary purchases.
Key facts
- Gold imports expected to fall around 15% in September
- Nearly 45 tonnes of gold imported in August
- Old-gold exchange currently accounts for 45-50% of jewellers' business
- Old-gold exchange could rise to 60-70% during the festive season
- India has an estimated 31,000 tonnes of idle household gold
- Jos Alukkas has 67 stores in South India
- Gold slipped below ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams
- MCX accumulation zone: ₹1,47,700-1,48,000 per 10 grams
Why this matters
The shift toward old-gold exchanges increases the strategic value of acquiring or partnering with assay, recycling, refining and gold-loan platforms that can monetize the growing secondary-gold supply.
What to watch
- September import data versus the expected 15% decline and August's roughly 45-tonne level.
- Share of festive sales sourced through old-gold exchanges, especially whether it reaches the projected 60-70% range.
- Gold price direction around ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams and volatility during the festive buying window.
- Jewellery chain disclosures on same-store sales, gram-volume growth, ticket size, making charges, and gross margins.
- Consumer discretionary indicators, including credit growth, rural income trends, and wedding-season booking activity.
- Any changes in import duty, recycling policy, hallmarking enforcement, or gold-loan conditions.
- Increase old-gold exchange capacity, including faster purity testing, transparent valuation, and instant crediting at stores.
- Expand lightweight, modular, and lower-ticket festive collections to protect unit demand and conversion.
- Use exchange-linked promotions rather than broad making-charge discounts to defend gross margins and acquire customer metal.
- Prioritise inventory turns and hedge discipline as lower imports and more recycled gold alter metal sourcing needs.
- Target wedding and repeat customers with pre-booking, gold-savings, and exchange-upgrade campaigns.