India retail could reach ₹210–215 trillion by 2035, lifting retail-tech watchlist
A Financial Express analysis flags Eternal, Nykaa, Delhivery and IndiaMART as retail-tech plays as India’s retail market is projected to grow from ₹90–95 trillion in 2025 to ₹210–215 trillion by 2035. The signal spans quick commerce, beauty omnichannel, logistics and B2B commerce.
What happened
Eternal (formerly Zomato) · India’s retail market could reach Rs 210-215 trillion by 2035. Eternal, Nykaa, Delhivery and IndiaMART are highlighted as
Key facts
- India retail market projected at Rs 210-215 trillion by 2035 versus Rs 90-95 trillion in 2025
- Eternal Q3 FY26 revenue Rs 16,315 crore, up 201.9% YoY
- Eternal Q3 FY26 net profit Rs 102 crore, up 102.9%
- Eternal added over 200 net stores
- Eternal share price up 13.5% in the past year
- Nykaa Q3 FY26 revenue Rs 2,873 crore, up 27%
- Nykaa Q3 FY26 net profit Rs 68 crore, up 156%
- Nykaa gross margin 45.2%; EBITDA margin 8.0%
- Nykaa added 11 stores, reaching 276 stores in 94 cities
- Nykaa B2B platform serves over 4.8 lakh retailers in 1,100 cities
- Delhivery Q3 FY26 services revenue about Rs 2,798 crore, up 18%
Why this matters
Prioritize partnerships or acquisitions that add last-mile logistics, merchant digitization, customer data and omnichannel infrastructure before retail-market growth intensifies competition.
What to watch
- India private-final-consumption growth, real wage growth and urban employment trends.
- Organized retail and e-commerce share gains versus unorganized trade.
- Quick-commerce order frequency, average order value, dark-store additions and evidence of rationalized discounting.
- Retail-media revenue growth and advertising take rates at consumer platforms.
- Nykaa beauty-category growth relative to discretionary consumption and store-level payback periods.
- Delhivery volume growth, EBITDA per shipment, utilization and exposure to marketplace versus direct-to-consumer clients.
- IndiaMART paid-supplier growth, subscription renewals and SME demand indicators.
- GST collections, UPI transaction growth and merchant digitization metrics.
- Policy changes affecting gig workers, e-commerce marketplace rules, quick-commerce inventory practices, data use or delivery zoning.
- Prioritize cohort-level order frequency, contribution margin and repeat-customer trends over topline GMV, especially in quick commerce.
- Track whether Eternal converts quick-commerce scale into higher-margin advertising, private-label and membership revenue rather than relying on delivery economics.
- Watch Nykaa's offline-store productivity and owned-brand mix as indicators that omnichannel growth is becoming margin accretive.
- Assess Delhivery on shipment mix, network utilization and enterprise-contract wins; retail growth matters most if it raises density and lowers cost per parcel.
- Monitor IndiaMART for paying-supplier additions, lead conversion and SME credit/fulfillment adjacencies, which could deepen platform monetization.
- Expect retail brands to diversify away from single-channel dependence, increasing demand for integrated warehousing, marketplace services, retail media and customer-data tools.