India retail growth slows to 5% in Q4 FY25 from 8% a year earlier, RAI says
Retailers Association of India data shows Q4 FY25 sales up just 5% YoY versus 8% in Q4 FY24. East led regions at 9%, ahead of North (6%), West (4%) and South (3%). QSR (8%) and food & grocery (7%) topped categories; durables/electronics lagged at 3%. Industry pins revival hopes on FY26 tax relief, festive demand and rural recovery.
What happened
Retailers Association of India (RAI) · India retail growth slowed to 5% YoY in Q4 FY25 from 8% a year earlier, per RAI. East led regionally; QSR and grocery led
Key facts
- 5% YoY Q4 FY25 growth
- 8% Q4 FY24
- East 9%
- North 6%
- West 4%
- South 3%
- QSR 8%
- food & grocery 7%
- sports goods 6%
- apparel 5%
- footwear 4%
- durables/electronics 3%
Why this matters
The South's 3% weakness and category divergence create opportunistic consolidation or acquisition targets among underperforming durables/electronics players ahead of an anticipated FY26 rebound.
What to watch
- FY26 budget tax-relief details and effective implementation date
- RBI rate-cut trajectory and CPI inflation prints
- Monsoon outlook and rural wage/MSP data for rural recovery confirmation
- Q1 FY26 RAI sales print — sustained sub-5% signals structural slowdown
- South-region same-store sales and discretionary category recovery
- Festive-season (Diwali) early sales indicators
- Retailers shift FY26 store-opening pipeline toward East and North-led catchments
- Increase promotional intensity and EMI/financing offers in durables/electronics to revive lagging categories
- Skew assortment toward defensive QSR and food/grocery formats with faster ROI
- Defer aggressive South-region expansion; renegotiate mall lease terms on weak footfall
- Build inventory ahead of festive season betting on tax-relief-driven demand