India retail market may reach ₹215 trillion by 2035, lifting retail-tech watchlist
A Financial Express analysis flags Eternal, Nykaa, Delhivery and IndiaMART as retail-tech beneficiaries of India’s projected retail expansion. Eternal’s quick-commerce business has reached breakeven, while Nykaa is adding stores, rapid delivery capacity and B2B reach.
What happened
Eternal (formerly Zomato) · India’s retail market could reach Rs 210-215 trillion by 2035, supporting retail-tech players Eternal, Nykaa, Delhivery and
Key facts
- India retail market projected at Rs 210-215 trillion by 2035, versus Rs 90-95 trillion in 2025
- Eternal Q3 FY26 revenue: Rs 16,315 crore, up 201.9% YoY
- Eternal Q3 FY26 net profit: Rs 102 crore, up 102.9%
- Eternal added more than 200 net stores
- Eternal share price rose 13.5% in the past year
- Nykaa Q3 FY26 revenue: Rs 2,873 crore, up 27%
- Nykaa Q3 FY26 net profit: Rs 68 crore, up 156%
- Nykaa gross margin: 45.2%; EBITDA margin: 8%
- Nykaa added 11 stores, reaching 276 stores across 94 cities
- Nykaa Now delivery: 30 minutes to 2 hours
- Nykaa B2B platform serves over 4.8 lakh retailers across 1,100 cities
- FSN share price rose 31.7% in the past year
- Delhivery Q3 FY26 services revenue: about Rs 2,798 crore, up 18% YoY
Why this matters
Retail expansion strengthens the strategic case for acquisitions and partnerships in quick commerce, logistics, B2B enablement and omnichannel infrastructure across India.
What to watch
- Quarterly quick-commerce contribution margin, order frequency, average order value and dark-store payback at Eternal and peers.
- Nykaa’s beauty gross margin, store productivity, rapid-delivery economics, B2B revenue growth and inventory days.
- Delhivery shipment growth, revenue per shipment, EBITDA margins, network utilization and competitive pricing trends.
- IndiaMART paid-supplier additions, renewal rates, ARPU and SME demand indicators.
- India consumption indicators: real wage growth, urban discretionary spending, inflation, credit availability and festival-season sales.
- Policy changes affecting e-commerce marketplaces, gig workers, dark stores, delivery operations, data use or online discounting.
- Evidence that organized and digital retail are gaining share faster than total retail, rather than merely reallocating demand among platforms.
- Eternal is likely to prioritize quick-commerce assortment expansion, dark-store density and higher-margin advertising/merchant monetization after reaching breakeven.
- Nykaa is likely to deepen omnichannel expansion through selective stores, faster-delivery inventory nodes, owned-brand penetration and B2B distribution.
- Delhivery may pursue higher utilization, integrated merchant services and more predictable B2B logistics revenue rather than volume growth alone.
- IndiaMART may target more paid supplier subscriptions and transaction-adjacent services as SMEs formalize procurement.
- Incumbent retailers and consumer brands are likely to increase investments in direct-to-consumer channels, retail media, loyalty data and rapid fulfillment partnerships.