India’s foreign tourist arrivals seen flat in 2026, remaining below pre-Covid levels
Tourism operators forecast 8–9 million foreign tourist arrivals in 2026 as conflict, higher airfares, limited overseas promotion and China visa constraints weigh on inbound demand. Arrivals in 2025 were reported at 9.15 million, down 8.1% year on year and 16.3% below 2019.
What happened
Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) · India’s foreign tourist arrivals may remain flat at 8-9 million in 2026, still below pre-Covid levels. Tourism operators cite
Key facts
- 8-9 million projected foreign tourist arrivals in 2026
- 9.15 million foreign tourist arrivals in 2025
- 2025 arrivals down 8.1% year-on-year
- 2025 arrivals down 16.3% versus 2019
- 534,000 foreign tourists arrived in April
- April arrivals down 31% versus April 2019
- April arrivals down 14.3% year-on-year
- 10-15% projected inbound-tourism growth in the coming season
- Approximately 20% of inbound business affected by China visa issues
Why this matters
Prioritize partnerships or acquisitions that expand domestic distribution, regional experiences and high-spend traveler conversion rather than relying on a near-term international tourism rebound.
What to watch
- Monthly foreign tourist arrival data versus 2025 and 2019 baselines.
- International air seat capacity, load factors and average fares into Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Goa and Kochi.
- Changes in China visa rules, bilateral flight permissions and India e-visa processing.
- Travel advisories, regional conflict escalation and cancellation rates from key source markets.
- Government tourism promotion budgets, overseas campaign launches and new direct international routes.
- Foreign guest share, ADR, RevPAR and booking lead times at gateway, luxury and heritage hotels.
- Inbound tour operator enquiry-to-booking conversion and average package value.
- Domestic leisure and MICE demand strength, which determines the sector's ability to backfill lost foreign footfall.
- Shift hotel and travel revenue plans toward domestic, diaspora, MICE and wedding demand rather than assuming a foreign-leisure rebound.
- Protect margins at inbound-heavy properties by packaging experiences and transfers instead of broad room-rate discounting.
- Reallocate overseas marketing to high-conversion source markets with direct air connectivity and stronger visa access; measure bookings by source market and route.
- Build shoulder-season demand through domestic long-weekend, wellness, spiritual, heritage and experiential travel packages.
- Review exposure of airport retail, luxury shopping, guides, transport and destination operators to foreign visitor spend; prioritize locations with diversified domestic footfall.
- Secure airline and distribution partnerships early, as limited seats and high fares can suppress bookings even where underlying travel intent exists.