India’s retail-trade index rose 18.5% in July, trial services data shows
MoSPI’s trial Index of Services Production put retail trade at 140.0 in July 2026, up 18.5% from July 2025. The index covers 19 service sub-sectors and uses 2024–25 as its base year; it was released on September 29, 2026.
The development
MoSPI released the trial Index of Services Production on September 29, 2026, reporting retail trade at 140.0, up 18.5% from July 2025. The experimental index covers 19 service sub-sectors and uses 2024–25 as its base year.
The numbers
- 18.5%
- 140.0
- July 2026
- July 2025
- September 29, 2026
- 19 sub-sectors
- 2024–25
Why it matters to operators and investors
The strong index growth may support exploring expansion or partnership opportunities in India’s retail sector, but validate demand and sub-sector drivers before advancing deals.
What to watch next
- Subsequent monthly readings and revisions to the trial index
- Growth across other service subsectors and any geographic or category breakdowns
- Retail company results for sales volumes, like-for-like growth, and inventory
- Consumer inflation, discretionary spending, and discounting trends
- Retailers should compare the index with company sales, footfall, same-store growth, and inventory before changing buying plans materially.
- Suppliers should plan for a possible near-term pickup while keeping production and distribution flexible.
- Investors should distinguish demand-led growth from price, base, or series-method effects before upgrading sector earnings expectations.
The counter-case
An 18.5% year-over-year rise in a newly released trial index is not, by itself, evidence of a retail boom. The figure may reflect a low or unusual July 2025 comparison, and the signal gives no month-over-month trend, component breakdown, or corroborating measures of sales, volumes, or consumer spending. Because the index is trial data with a new base year, its methodology and historical comparability also need scrutiny.