India's sunflower oil imports forecast to rise 30% after duty cut
An SEA official forecasts sunflower oil imports of 3.5 million metric tons in 2026/27 after basic import duty fell from 10% to zero. Soyoil imports are projected to drop 10.7% to 5 million tons, signalling a shift in India's edible-oil sourcing mix.
The development
India's sunflower oil imports could rise 30% to 3.5 million metric tons in 2026/27, according to SEA, after the basic import duty fell to zero from 10%. Soyoil purchases are forecast to fall 10.7% to 5 million tons.
The numbers
- 30%
- 2026/27
- 3.5 million metric tons
- 10.7%
- 5 million tons
Why it matters to operators and investors
Reassess Indian edible-oil sourcing and shelf allocation as sunflower imports are forecast to rise 30% in 2026/27 following the basic duty cut to zero, validating landed costs before changing prices or inventory.
What to watch next
- Effective landed-cost spreads among sunflower, soyoil and palm oil, including remaining taxes and levies.
- Monthly import arrivals and port stocks versus the 3.5-million-ton sunflower and 5-million-ton soyoil forecasts.
- Black Sea export availability, freight costs and the rupee exchange rate.
- Retail price pass-through, promotional intensity and sunflower's sales share.
- Soyoil supplier discounts and any further edible-oil duty changes.
The counter-case
The projected 30% increase may largely reflect substitution away from soyoil rather than stronger edible-oil demand. It is a forecast, not booked shipments, and relative prices, exchange rates or policy changes could reverse the shift. Cheaper imports also do not automatically improve retailer margins if savings are passed through to shoppers.