India smartphone shipments fall 10% in Q2 2026, worst June quarter in six years as memory costs bite
Record memory chip prices—up roughly 4x since September 2025—drove ~15% average price hikes, crushing the sub-₹15,000 segment by 45%. Premium held firm, with financing exceeding half of mainline sales. Nothing surged +105% YoY and Google ultra-premium +68%, while Apple slipped 3%. Full-year decline projected at 13%.
What happened
India smartphone market · India smartphone shipments fell 10% YoY in Q2 2026, the worst June quarter in six years, as record memory chip costs drove ~15% price
Key facts
- 10% YoY shipment decline Q2 2026
- 13% projected full-year decline
- memory prices up ~4x since Sept 2025
- avg price hike ~15%
- sub-₹15,000 segment down 45%
- Apple share 7%, shipments down 3%
- Nothing +105% YoY
- Google ultra-premium +68%
- MediaTek 49% chipset share
- financing >50% of mainline sales
Why this matters
The polarization—Nothing +105%, Google ultra-premium +68%, Apple down 3%, mass-market collapsing—opens acquisition and partnership targets among distressed budget players and financing platforms enabling premium access.
What to watch
- DRAM/NAND spot and contract pricing trajectory into Q3-Q4 2026
- Consumer financing penetration rate and default/NPA trends
- Refurbished and second-hand smartphone volume growth
- Entry-tier ASP movements and sub-₹15k SKU count
- Festive season (Diwali) sell-through as demand-recovery signal
- OEMs trim RAM/storage configs and launch stripped-spec entry models to hold price points below ₹15k
- Retailers expand no-cost EMI, exchange bonuses, and lender tie-ups to protect premium sell-through
- Brands like Nothing and Google double down on ultra-premium marketing where elasticity is lowest
- Channel partners rebalance inventory toward ₹25k+ tier and refurbished programs
- Apple leans on Made-in-India assembly and trade-in offers to stem the 3% slip