India smartphone shipments fall 10% in Q2 as memory-driven price hikes crush budget segment
Component cost inflation—memory prices up ~4x since Sept 2025 and now over 45% of BoM—pushed average prices up ~15%, gutting the sub-Rs 15,000 segment by 45%. Vivo led at 17.8% share; Apple slipped 3%, Nothing surged 105%. EMIs now over half of mainline sales. Counterpoint forecasts a further 13% decline in 2026.
What happened
India smartphone market · India's smartphone shipments fell 10% YoY in Q2 as memory-driven component costs forced price hikes, crushing sub-Rs 15,000 sales 45%.
Key facts
- 10% YoY shipment decline Q2
- 3% decline Q1
- sub-Rs 15,000 segment down 45%
- avg price up ~15%
- memory >45% of BoM
- Vivo 17.8% share
- Apple shipments -3%
- Nothing +105%
- MediaTek 49% chipset share
- EMI >50% of mainline sales
- memory prices up ~4x since Sept 2025
- 2026 forecast -13%
Why this matters
With memory now over 45% of BoM and EMIs above half of mainline sales, distressed budget-segment players and financing platforms become attractive consolidation or partnership targets heading into a contracting 2026.
What to watch
- DRAM/NAND spot pricing and supplier guidance for H2 2026
- Festive-season (Diwali) shipment and sell-through data
- EMI/BNPL default and delinquency rates as financing exceeds 50% of sales
- Monthly share shifts among Vivo, Nothing, Xiaomi and Apple
- Government/PLI policy or tariff responses to component cost inflation
- OEMs cull sub-Rs 15,000 SKUs and reposition entry models with lower memory configs or aggressive EMI/no-cost financing
- Vendors negotiate long-term memory supply contracts and diversify sourcing to hedge component inflation
- Retailers and NBFCs expand EMI/BNPL penetration to preserve accessibility of higher-ASP devices
- Nothing and challenger brands press share gains in the mid-tier while incumbents defend premium
- Apple leans on trade-in, financing and retail expansion to arrest its 3% slip