India smartphone shipments fall 10% in Q2, worst June quarter in six years as memory costs bite
Surging memory prices (~4x since Sept 2025) drove ~15% price hikes, crushing the budget segment—sub-₹15,000 shipments plunged 45%. vivo led with 18% share, Samsung grew 2%, Apple slipped 3%, Nothing surged 105%. Financing now covers over half of all sales. Counterpoint forecasts a further 13% decline in 2026.
What happened
Counterpoint Research · India's smartphone shipments fell 10% in Q2, the steepest June-quarter drop in six years, as surging memory costs drove ~15% price
Key facts
- 10% YoY shipment decline Q2
- 13% forecast decline 2026
- 15% avg price hike
- sub-₹15,000 shipments down 45%
- memory prices up ~4x since Sept 2025
- vivo 18% share
- Samsung +2%
- OPPO 14% share
- Apple -3%
- Nothing +105%
- financing >50% of sales
Why this matters
With budget-segment collapse and financing now underwriting half of all sales, consumer-credit and BNPL partnerships plus mid-tier brand consolidation become the key strategic levers.
What to watch
- DRAM/NAND spot and contract pricing trajectory through 2026
- Sub-₹15,000 segment share in Q3/Q4 shipment data
- Financing penetration rate crossing 55-60%
- Apple India share stabilization vs continued slippage
- INR depreciation amplifying import-linked component costs
- Festive season (Diwali) demand response to elevated pricing
- OEMs shift SKUs upward, trimming sub-₹15k lineups and bundling more storage-lite/financing variants
- Aggressive no-cost EMI and buyback programs from Samsung, vivo, Apple to preserve volume
- Component hedging and longer memory supply contracts to stabilize BOM costs
- Nothing and challengers press channel expansion to capitalize on 105% growth momentum
- Retailers push refurbished/used devices to capture priced-out budget buyers