India sugar prices jump 37% YoY as supply concerns trigger imports and stock limits
Lower production, festive demand and speculative buying have lifted India’s average retail sugar price to Rs 63.05 per kg. The government has allowed duty-free imports of 1 MT of raw sugar and imposed stock limits, while industry body ISMA maintains that supplies remain adequate.
What happened
India’s sugar prices have surged amid lower production, festive demand and speculative buying. The government permitted 1 MT of duty-free raw-sugar imports and imposed stock limits, while ISMA says supply remains adequate despite reduced output and ethanol diversion.
Key facts
- Net 2025-26 sugar production after ethanol diversion estimated at 27.9 MT
- Opening stock was 5 MT
- Annual domestic demand estimated at 28-28.5 MT
- India exported 0.8 MT before the export ban
- Opening stock projected at 3.5 MT on October 1, 2026
- Government allowed duty-free imports of 1 MT of raw sugar
- Ex-mill prices are Rs 55-56 per kg
- Gross sugar production forecast revised to 30.9 MT from 34.5 MT
- Average retail sugar price was Rs 63.05 per kg, up 37% year-on-year and 30% month-on-month
- International sugar price rose 16% to $552 per tonne from $474 per tonne
- Sugar diversion for ethanol declined from about 12% in 2022-23 to about 9% in 2025-26
Why this matters
The disruption could create opportunities to secure upstream supply partnerships, invest in sugar substitutes or sweetener capabilities, and acquire distressed or strategically valuable processing assets.