India-UK CETA to Nearly Double Exports by FY31, Lifting Textile & Jewellery Retailers
The India-UK CETA (effective July 15) eliminates tariffs on nearly all Indian exports, targeting $24.2B to UK by FY31 vs $13.5B in FY26. Removal of 12% textile and 16% leather duties benefits retail-linked exporters like Titan, Kalyan Jewellers, Gokaldas Exports, KPR Mill and Welspun Living.
What happened
Titan Company · India-UK CETA (effective July 15) eliminates tariffs on nearly all Indian exports to UK. Winners include textiles/apparel and gems & jewellery,
Key facts
- exports to UK $24.2B by FY31 vs $13.5B FY26
- bilateral trade $41B vs $25.1B
- textile/apparel exports $3.1B vs $2.1B
- gems & jewellery $1.33B vs $702M
- leather $900M vs $411M
- 12% textile tariff removed
- 16% leather duty removed
Why this matters
The CETA's July 15 tariff elimination creates a window to pursue UK distribution partnerships, capacity expansion, or acquisitions positioning for the projected $10.7B export uplift by FY31.
What to watch
- Monthly India-UK textile/leather export data post July 15 implementation
- Order book commentary in Q2-Q3 FY26 exporter earnings calls
- GBP/INR and GBP/USD moves affecting realization
- UK CBAM/carbon border adjustment and ESG compliance rules on imports
- Bangladesh/Vietnam competitive response and any UK FTA parity moves
- Capacity utilization and capex announcements from KPR, Gokaldas, Welspun
- Exporters guide up FY27 capex to expand UK-facing capacity; Gokaldas and KPR flag order pipeline in upcoming earnings
- Titan and Kalyan explore direct UK retail/wholesale channels to capture duty-free jewellery margin
- Brokerages upgrade textile/leather export names on multi-year revenue visibility
- UK retailers renegotiate contracts to share tariff savings, pressuring exporter net realization