India-UK FTA could double bilateral trade to $120B by 2030, reshaping retail sourcing and imports
The India-UK CETA offers 99% duty-free access across 89.5% of tariff lines, boosting export categories like textiles, leather, and gems & jewellery while opening India to UK beverages, spirits, and automobiles. ASSOCHAM projects bilateral commerce doubling from $58B in FY26 to $120B by 2030.
What happened
India-UK CETA to double bilateral trade to $120B by 2030, offering duty-free access boosting export sectors including textiles, leather, gems and jewellery; UK
Key facts
- $120 billion by 2030
- $58 billion FY26
- 99% duty-free exports
- 89.5% tariff lines
Why this matters
Evaluate acquisitions, JVs, and supply-chain partnerships that lock in tariff advantages across the 89.5% of newly duty-free lines before competitors reposition.
What to watch
- Formal ratification and enforcement date of the CETA
- Rules-of-origin and non-tariff barrier clarifications
- Quarterly UK-India trade volume data by category
- Retailer earnings-call commentary on sourcing diversification
- India domestic tariff phase-down schedule for spirits and autos
- UK grocers and apparel retailers scope Indian textile/leather vendors and pilot orders to test cost and compliance
- Sourcing teams re-model landed-cost scenarios factoring 0% duties vs. incumbent Bangladesh/China supply
- UK spirits and auto brands establish or expand India distribution ahead of tariff phase-downs
- Indian exporters invest in capacity, certifications, and ESG compliance to meet UK retailer standards