ITC sees steepest FY27 EPS cut among Nifty peers; Titan estimates rise 3%
August analyst revisions cut ITC’s FY27 EPS estimate by 10%, with Bloomberg consensus implying a Rs 325 target and 23% upside. Titan’s FY27 EPS estimate rose 3%, though its consensus target indicates 8.5% upside.
What happened
ITC Ltd · ITC recorded the sharpest FY27 EPS downgrade among Nifty firms in August, while Titan received a 3% upgrade. The revisions and 12-month targets matter
Key facts
- ITC FY27 EPS estimate cut 10%
- Tata Steel FY27 EPS estimate cut 7.6%
- Kotak Mahindra Bank FY27 EPS estimate cut 6.8%
- Maruti Suzuki FY27 EPS estimate cut 6.1%
- Adani Enterprises FY27 EPS estimate cut 6%
- Grasim FY27 EPS estimate upgrade 17.3%
- Bajaj Finserv upgrade 8.9%
- Hindalco and SBI upgrades 4.4% each
- Titan FY27 EPS estimate upgrade 3%
- ITC Bloomberg consensus target Rs 325, implying 23% upside
- Titan target implies 8.5% upside
Why this matters
The divergence between ITC and Titan highlights stronger market confidence in premium retail-led growth than in ITC’s broader consumer and tobacco earnings trajectory.
What to watch
- A further 3% or greater reduction in ITC FY27 consensus EPS, especially following quarterly results.
- ITC cigarette volume growth weakening despite price-led revenue growth.
- ITC FMCG margin improvement or a credible path to sustained profitability that reverses estimate cuts.
- Titan reporting jewellery growth materially above consensus with stable or expanding margins.
- Titan’s consensus target upside falling below 5% despite EPS upgrades, indicating valuation is absorbing the improved outlook.
- A broad slowdown in urban discretionary spending, gold-price volatility, or weaker festive-season demand.
- Monitor ITC’s next quarterly cigarette volume, net realisation, FMCG EBIT margin, agri profitability, and management commentary on demand and input costs.
- Track whether ITC’s FY27 consensus EPS cuts spread to FY26 estimates and whether the Rs 325 consensus target is revised lower.
- Watch Titan’s jewellery revenue growth, buyer additions, studded-jewellery mix, EBIT margin, and store-expansion productivity.
- Compare estimate-revision breadth across Nifty consumer, staples, discretionary, and tobacco-linked peers to identify whether the shift is company-specific or sector-wide.
- Assess valuation dispersion: ITC’s forward P/E and dividend yield versus historical ranges, and Titan’s forward P/E versus its growth and return-on-capital trajectory.