Jefferies adds Manappuram, Hindustan Zinc as gold rally reshapes India portfolio
Jefferies added Manappuram Finance and Hindustan Zinc to its India model portfolio, citing a sustained gold and silver rally. It flagged Titan, Kalyan Jewellers, MCX, IIFL Finance and Muthoot Finance as potential beneficiaries.
What happened
Jefferies added Manappuram Finance and Hindustan Zinc to its India model portfolio, citing the gold and silver rally. It also highlighted potential
Key facts
- Gold prices in India have risen 2.5 times over the past three years
- Gold climbed 6.6% since August 20
- NYSE Arca Gold BUGS Index rose 49% since mid-July
- Financials allocation is 33.5% versus 30.6% in MSCI India
Why this matters
The rally increases the strategic value of gold-finance, jewellery-financing and bullion-market capabilities, making partnerships or acquisitions in these adjacencies more compelling.
What to watch
- Gold sustaining above recent India all-time highs versus a correction of more than 10%.
- RBI or NBFC regulatory changes affecting gold-loan underwriting, LTV caps, auctions or branch expansion.
- Quarterly gold-loan AUM growth, yields, collection efficiency and auction-loss trends.
- Jewellery retailer volume growth turning negative despite continued double-digit revenue growth.
- MCX precious-metals average daily turnover and options open interest accelerating.
- Silver rally persistence and Hindustan Zinc guidance on mined metal output and cost trends.
- Increase monitoring of gold-loan disbursement growth, average ticket size, loan-to-value ratios and auction losses at Manappuram, Muthoot and IIFL Finance.
- Track Titan and Kalyan same-store sales separately by value growth, volume growth, wedding demand and lightweight-product mix.
- Watch MCX bullion contract volumes, options activity and retail participation as a read-through on investment-led gold demand.
- Assess whether organized jewellers expand gold-savings, EMI, exchange and buyback offerings to defend affordability and capture market share.
- Monitor Hindustan Zinc's silver-price sensitivity, production guidance and realized metal-price contribution to earnings.