Jefferies favours Bharti Airtel as revenue rises 10% and market share expands
Jefferies retained Bharti Airtel as its preferred Indian telecom stock after the company posted 10% year-on-year revenue growth, aided by premiumisation, 7% ARPU growth and a nearly 45% share of incremental industry revenue. It expects sector revenue to grow at a 12% CAGR from FY27 to FY29.
What happened
Jefferies retained Bharti Airtel as its preferred Indian telecom stock, citing 10% June-quarter revenue growth, premiumisation and market-share gains. It
Key facts
- Annualised sector revenue: US$33 billion
- Sector revenue growth: 8% YoY
- Subscriber additions: 4%
- Sector ARPU growth: 4%
- Expected sector revenue CAGR FY27-FY29: 12%
- Bharti Airtel revenue growth: 10% YoY
- Bharti Airtel ARPU growth: 7%
- Bharti Airtel subscriber growth: 3%
- Airtel share of incremental industry revenue: nearly 45%
- Airtel revenue market share: around 40%
- Airtel market-share gain: 20 basis points
- Vodafone Idea revenue growth: 3% YoY
- Vodafone Idea active-subscriber decline: 3%
- Vodafone Idea ARPU growth: 6%
Why this matters
Airtel’s capture of nearly 45% of incremental industry revenue signals strengthening competitive positioning, making premium customer assets and network-scale partnerships strategically more valuable.
What to watch
- Quarterly ARPU growth remaining above 6%-7% and revenue growth near or above 10%.
- Airtel's share of incremental industry revenue holding near 45% or increasing.
- Evidence of broad-based tariff hikes, recharge-price changes or reduced promotional intensity by competitors.
- Net subscriber additions, postpaid additions and 5G adoption versus Reliance Jio.
- Capex-to-revenue, free cash flow and net-debt trends as 5G network spending progresses.
- Vodafone Idea fundraising, network rollout and pricing behavior.
- Growth in mobile-data consumption, fixed wireless access and Airtel Business revenues.
- Prioritize high-ARPU postpaid, 5G and home-broadband bundles to deepen customer wallet share.
- Use incremental cash flow to fund network densification in high-data-use urban circles and enterprise connectivity.
- Expand bundled partnerships in streaming, cloud, fintech, devices and retail loyalty to reinforce premium plan adoption.
- Monitor scope for tariff increases while avoiding churn among prepaid customers.
- Potentially increase selective spectrum, fiber and enterprise-service investments if sector pricing remains disciplined.