Jefferies: Gold Duty Hike to 15% Risks Smuggling Surge; Titan Best Positioned

India's gold/silver import duty jump from 6% to 15% (10% BCD + 5% AIDC) may revive smuggling and squeeze larger organised jewellers, Jefferies warns. Titan seen as relatively insulated via domestic sourcing and ~50% exchange mix. MCX gold and silver futures both spiked ~6% on the move.

— FiledWed, 13 May, 2026, 16:48 IST·First seen Wed, 13 May, 2026, 16:40 IST·Source NDTV Profit

What happened

Jefferies warns India's gold/silver duty hike from 6% to 15% may spur smuggling, hurting larger jewellers most. Titan better placed via domestic sourcing and

Key facts

  • 6% to 15%
  • 10% BCD
  • 5% AIDC
  • ~50% gold exchange mix
  • MCX Gold +6% / Rs 9,188 to Rs 1,62,334 per 10g
  • MCX Silver +6% / Rs 16,743 to Rs 2,95,805 per kg

Why this matters

Scan for distressed mid-tier jewellers and regional chains losing share to smuggling-fed unorganised players—duty-driven margin pain could unlock consolidation targets over the next 2-3 quarters.