Jefferies retains Buy on TVS Motor, sees 24% upside to ₹5,425
Jefferies’ TVS Motor thesis is driven by EV growth, exports, premiumisation and margin expansion, with volume CAGR of 13% and EPS CAGR of 24% projected for FY26–FY29.
What happened
TVS Motor Company · Jefferies retained Buy ratings on TVS Motor, Turtlemint and Emmvee. Its TVS thesis cites EVs, exports, premiumisation and margin gains;
Key facts
- TVS Motor target price: Rs 5,425; implied upside: 24%
- Turtlemint target price: Rs 190; implied upside: 37%
- Emmvee target price: Rs 440; implied upside: 38%
- TVS expected volume CAGR: 13% and EPS CAGR: 24% during FY26-FY29
- Turtlemint expected revenue CAGR: 38% over three years; adjusted EBITDA margin: 10% by FY29
- Emmvee planned cell capacity: 8.9 GW and module capacity: 16.3 GW by FY27
Why this matters
TVS Motor’s EV expansion, export scaling and premiumisation strategy strengthen its position for partnerships, capacity investments and portfolio-led growth.
What to watch
- EV scooter market-share gains or losses for three consecutive months
- Monthly TVS volume growth sustaining above broader industry growth
- EBITDA-margin expansion from premiumisation, localization and scale
- New EV incentive policy, battery-safety regulation or charging-infrastructure developments
- Material commodity-price moves in steel, aluminum, precious metals and battery inputs
- Export volume acceleration or renewed weakness in key overseas markets
- Evidence of rising dealer inventory, financing stress or elevated retail discounting
- Quarterly EPS growth tracking near or below the projected 24% CAGR
- Track monthly domestic two-wheeler registrations, especially electric scooter share versus Ola, Ather, Bajaj and Hero MotoCorp.
- Watch iQube model launches, battery/range upgrades, dealer-network additions and any evidence of reduced subsidies or elevated discounts.
- Monitor premium motorcycle launches and mix trends, including Apache, Ronin and Norton-related international strategy.
- Assess export recovery by region, particularly ASEAN, Africa and Latin America, alongside currency and distributor inventory conditions.
- Compare quarterly gross margin, EBITDA margin, advertising spend and working-capital trends against the implied FY26-FY29 earnings trajectory.