Jefferies sees 33% upside in Reliance as refinery disruptions bolster FY27 earnings

Jefferies retained its Buy on Reliance Industries with a Rs 1,710 target, citing tighter global refining supply, stronger fuel and petrochemical margins and support for FY27 O2C earnings. Stronger parent-level cash generation could reinforce capital capacity across Reliance’s consumer and retail businesses.

— Source publishedTue, 1 Sept, 2026, 15:24 IST·First seen Tue, 1 Sept, 2026, 15:37 IST·Source Financial Express · BrandWagon

What happened

Jefferies retained a Buy on Reliance Industries with a Rs 1,710 target, citing global refinery disruptions, stronger fuel and petrochemical margins, and

Key facts

  • Jefferies target price: Rs 1,710
  • Implied upside: 33%
  • Expected consolidated EBITDA CAGR: 10% for FY26-FY29
  • Global refinery throughput lost: around 4%
  • Middle East refinery run cuts: around 2.5 million barrels per day
  • Russia refinery run cuts: around 1.5 million barrels per day
  • Diesel crack: around $70 per barrel
  • Gasoline crack: $47.3 per barrel
  • Singapore GRM average: $21.2 per barrel
  • Petrochemical margins up: 64%

Why this matters

A more cash-generative O2C business may give Reliance greater flexibility to pursue retail partnerships, acquisitions and ecosystem investments without overextending its balance sheet.

What to watch

  • Sustained global refining outages and higher Singapore GRM benchmarks
  • Reliance quarterly O2C EBITDA, free cash flow and net-debt trajectory
  • Retail revenue growth, EBITDA margin and store-addition disclosures
  • Retail capex guidance and any announced consumer-sector acquisitions
  • Competitive response from Tata, Aditya Birla, DMart, Amazon, Flipkart and quick-commerce platforms
  • Monitor whether Reliance raises retail capex, adds fulfilment capacity or accelerates new-store openings in FY27 guidance.
  • Watch for private-label launches, merchant onboarding initiatives and JioFinance/Jio bundled offers that use parent-level funding advantages.
  • Track acquisition activity in consumer brands, quick commerce, logistics and retail technology.
  • Assess whether stronger cash generation lowers the need for external fundraising at Reliance Retail.