Jefferies sees Paytm becoming India’s largest merchant platform across online and offline channels, resurfacing a March 2026 note

Resurfacing a March 2026 report, Jefferies forecasts Paytm will reach ₹35 lakh crore in payments GMV and ₹12,500 crore in revenue by FY28, powered by merchant acquisition, Soundbox deployment and financial-services growth.

— FiledTue, 28 Jul, 2026, 02:47 IST·First seen Tue, 28 Jul, 2026, 02:46 IST·Source The Hindu BusinessLine

What happened

Jefferies expects Paytm’s merchant platform to become India’s largest across online and offline channels, driven by Soundbox adoption, payment-volume growth and

Key facts

  • ₹1,350 target price
  • 22% revenue CAGR, FY26-FY28
  • 45 million active merchants
  • 23% payments GMV CAGR, FY26-FY28
  • ₹35 lakh crore payments GMV by FY28
  • ₹24 lakh crore estimated payments GMV in FY26
  • 13 million installed Soundbox devices
  • 10,000 outlets in AI conversational Soundbox pilot
  • 28% financial-services revenue CAGR, FY26-FY28
  • ₹12,500 crore total revenue by FY28
  • ₹1,700 crore projected FY28 PAT
  • ₹1,417 crore FY24 loss
  • ₹574 crore estimated FY26 profit
  • 55-56% contribution margins
  • 8.5% to 16% adjusted EBITDA margin, FY26-FY28

Why this matters

Paytm’s offline-to-online merchant network could make it an increasingly strategic partner or acquisition target for firms seeking Indian payments distribution, merchant data and embedded-finance capabilities.

What to watch

  • Quarterly net merchant additions, active-device base and Soundbox subscription revenue per device.
  • Payments GMV growth relative to revenue growth, indicating whether monetization is improving rather than volume merely expanding.
  • Merchant-services and financial-services share of revenue, especially lending distribution income and credit-loss trends.
  • Regulatory developments affecting UPI economics, wallet operations, KYC requirements, payment-aggregator permissions and digital-lending rules.
  • Competitive pricing for merchant devices, MDR-adjacent services, settlement products and credit from PhonePe, Google Pay, banks and BharatPe.
  • Evidence that large retailers and D2C brands adopt Paytm for integrated online-offline payments rather than only QR acceptance.
  • Bundle Soundbox hardware with paid merchant subscriptions, settlement analytics, GST tools and inventory or loyalty features to reduce dependence on transaction economics.
  • Prioritize high-frequency merchant categories such as kiranas, restaurants, pharmacies, mobility, fuel and small-format retail, where device-led engagement can produce recurring service revenue.
  • Use payment-history data to expand partner-led merchant credit, but focus on collections quality and repeat borrowers rather than GMV-led loan origination.
  • Strengthen omnichannel checkout integrations for brands and marketplaces so offline merchants can connect payments, customer data, loyalty and online order flows.
  • Defend merchant retention through faster settlement, better dispute support and interoperable QR/device offerings as PhonePe, Google Pay and banks intensify acquisition efforts.