Jefferies starts 'Buy' on Radico Khaitan, Allied Blenders; up to 25% upside on premiumisation play

Jefferies initiated coverage with 'Buy' on Radico Khaitan (TP ₹4,500) and Allied Blenders (TP ₹780), and 'Hold' on United Spirits (TP ₹1,560). The call hinges on premiumisation in India's alcoholic beverage market, with prestige-and-above driving 40% of profits on 10% of volumes and 30%+ EPS CAGR seen through FY26.

— Source publishedMon, 29 Jun, 2026, 13:45 IST·First seen Mon, 29 Jun, 2026, 13:52 IST·Source Mint · Markets

What happened

Jefferies initiated 'Buy' on Radico Khaitan and Allied Blenders with up to 25% upside, 'Hold' on United Spirits, citing premiumisation-led growth in India's

Key facts

  • 25% upside
  • 30%+ EPS CAGR FY23-FY26
  • P&A 10% volumes / 40% profits
  • P&A volume growth 12%
  • Radico TP ₹4,500
  • Allied Blenders TP ₹780
  • United Spirits TP ₹1,560
  • Allied Blenders +5.88%
  • Radico ₹3,851 52-week high

Why this matters

The premiumisation thesis is repricing India's alcobev landscape, making prestige-tier brand acquisitions and portfolio upgrades increasingly valuable strategic targets.

What to watch

  • Quarterly prestige-and-above volume mix and gross margin trajectory
  • State excise policy changes and duty/pricing approvals across key states
  • ENA, glass and packaging input cost trends
  • FII/DII flow data and block deals in the names
  • Rural and mass-segment volume demand signals
  • Peer alcobev names (United Breweries, Globus Spirits, Tilaknagar) see sympathy bids and rating reviews
  • Other brokerages publish catch-up notes or defend underweight on valuation
  • Radico/Allied management lean into premium portfolio guidance on upcoming earnings calls
  • Profit-taking near 52-week highs creates short-term volatility into the move