JM Financial retains Add on Adani Ports, sets Rs 1,935 target

JM Financial maintained its Add rating on Adani Ports after August cargo volumes rose 19.3% year on year, saying FY27 EBITDA could exceed guidance. The brokerage flagged falling rail-container volumes and potential market-share loss in that segment.

— Source publishedThu, 3 Sept, 2026, 13:22 IST·First seen Thu, 3 Sept, 2026, 13:33 IST·Source Business Today · Latest

What happened

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone · JM Financial retained its Add rating on Adani Ports with a Rs 1,935 target, citing strong August cargo growth and

Key facts

  • Target price: Rs 1,935
  • Rating: Add
  • Share price referenced: Rs 1,648
  • August cargo-volume growth: 19.3% YoY
  • Dry cargo-volume growth: 25% YoY
  • Container-volume growth: 15% YoY
  • Underlying August cargo volume excluding NQXT: about 46 mmt
  • Underlying cargo growth excluding NQXT: about 10.5% YoY
  • FY27 cargo handled through August: 234.5 mmt
  • FY27 estimated cargo volume: 565 mmt
  • August rail container volume: 54,100 TEUs
  • August rail container-volume change: -5.6% YoY
  • FY27 rail container-volume change through August: about -33%
  • FY27 EBITDA guidance: Rs 2,500-2,600 crore
  • JM Financial FY27 core EBITDA estimate: Rs 2,620 crore
  • Estimated FY27 EBITDA growth: 15% YoY
  • Estimated FY27 EBITDA margin: 59.8%

Why this matters

The contrast between broad cargo strength and softer rail-container volumes highlights a need to defend intermodal market share through network, service, or partnership investments.

What to watch

  • Monthly cargo-volume growth versus the 19.3% August year-on-year benchmark.
  • Rail-container volume trends, market-share data and customer churn by corridor.
  • Any FY27 EBITDA guidance revision or commentary on operating leverage.
  • Container freight, import-export and industrial production trends affecting port throughput.
  • Changes in rail freight pricing, capacity availability, competing logistics offerings or regulatory conditions.
  • Prioritize commercial retention and win-back programs in rail-container corridors where volume loss is concentrated.
  • Use port cargo momentum to cross-sell rail, warehousing and inland logistics services through bundled contracts.
  • Review rail-container pricing, service reliability and turnaround times against competing operators.
  • Shift incremental capex toward high-throughput ports and logistics assets with proven utilization while moderating lower-return rail expansion.
  • Communicate segment-level volume, market-share and margin trends to support confidence in EBITDA guidance.