JM Financial sees widening quick commerce gap as Blinkit outpaces Instamart on growth, profitability
JM Financial retains 'Buy' on Eternal (target raised to Rs 440 from Rs 400, ~69.9% upside) and 'Reduce' on Swiggy (target cut to Rs 250 from Rs 280). Blinkit NOV rose 17.7% QoQ to Rs 16,900 crore with adj EBITDA of Rs 125 crore, while Instamart grew just 5.2% QoQ and posted an adj EBITDA loss of ~Rs 760 crore. The brokerage assigns no value to Instamart.
What happened
JM Financial sees a widening quick commerce gap, with Blinkit outpacing Instamart on growth and profitability. It retains 'Buy' on Eternal (target Rs 440) and
Key facts
- target price Rs 440 (from Rs 400)
- Eternal upside ~69.9%
- Swiggy target Rs 250 (from Rs 280)
- Swiggy upside ~4.6%
- Blinkit NOV +17.7% QoQ to Rs 16,900 crore
- Blinkit adj EBITDA Rs 125 crore (from Rs 37 crore)
- Instamart NOV +5.2% QoQ
- Instamart adj EBITDA loss ~Rs 760 crore
- food delivery GOV +19.2% YoY
Why this matters
With Instamart assigned no value and losing ground on both growth and profitability, Swiggy faces mounting pressure to restructure, partner, or divest its quick commerce arm to defend its equity story.
What to watch
- Q3 NOV growth spread between Blinkit and Instamart
- Instamart adj EBITDA loss trajectory (narrowing vs widening)
- Dark-store count and take-rate disclosures each quarter
- Swiggy strategic commentary on capital allocation to Instamart
- Zepto funding/IPO moves and Amazon-Flipkart quick-commerce scaling
- Eternal/Blinkit accelerates dark-store additions and private-label push to lock in category leadership
- Swiggy management guides toward Instamart burn reduction and store-level profitability on next earnings call
- Competing brokerages re-rate Eternal upward and cut Swiggy estimates, widening valuation gap
- New entrants (Amazon Now, Flipkart Minutes, Zepto) intensify metro overlap and promo spend