Kotak initiates Meesho at 'Reduce', Rs 195 target — growth story already priced in
Kotak Institutional Equities began Meesho coverage with a Reduce rating and Rs 195 target, just 1% above CMP of Rs 193. Forecasts 28% NMV/revenue CAGR through FY29, annual transacting users rising from 264M (FY26) to 391M (FY29), and Ebitda breakeven by FY29 — but says asset-light model and Valmo logistics scale-up are baked in.
What happened
Kotak initiates Meesho coverage with 'reduce' rating, Rs 195 target (1% upside). Forecasts 28% NMV/revenue CAGR through FY29, 391M users, Ebitda breakeven by
Key facts
- target Rs 195
- CMP Rs 193
- 264M ATC FY26
- 2.7B orders
- 391M ATC FY29
- 28% CAGR NMV/revenue
- 60-65% Valmo shipments
- Ebitda breakeven FY29
Why this matters
A Reduce rating on day-one coverage signals Meesho's public-market currency is capped near current levels, making stock-funded M&A expensive and raising the bar for any strategic partnership or roll-up plays.