Kotak sees 16% EBITDA CAGR for Indian hotels in FY26-28 as West Asia drag fades

Foreign travel rebound to lift occupancy from 68% to 72%; 4QFY26 RevPAR ₹6,868 (+5.3% YoY), ARR ₹10,100 (+6.3%). IHCL, The Leela and ITC Hotels led the quarter. Industry signed 61.9k keys in FY26 vs 41k FY25; branded inventory heading to 310k keys at 8% supply CAGR through FY31.

— Source publishedSat, 6 Jun, 2026, 13:34 IST·First seen Sat, 6 Jun, 2026, 13:36 IST·Source BL · Consumer & Economy

What happened

Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) · Kotak Securities projects 16% EBITDA CAGR for Indian hotels over FY26-28 as West Asia crisis fades and foreign travel rebounds.

Key facts

  • 16% EBITDA CAGR FY26-28E
  • RevPAR ₹6,868/day 4QFY26 +5.3% YoY
  • ARR ₹10,100/day +6.3% YoY
  • Occupancy 68%, target 72%
  • 61.9k keys signed FY26 vs 41k FY25
  • 8% supply CAGR FY26-31E
  • branded inventory to 310k keys

Why this matters

Signings nearly 50% above FY25 signal a consolidation window—portfolio tuck-ins and management contracts should be front-loaded before ARR gains compress acquisition multiples.

Also reported by