Macquarie sees Jio and Airtel delivering about 12% EBITDA CAGR through FY29
Macquarie expects tariff hikes, data consumption and digital-infrastructure demand to support both telcos. Jio’s completed network build-out could lift annual free cash flow to $5–6 billion by FY29, while Airtel is projected to retain stronger capital efficiency.
What happened
Reliance Jio · Macquarie expects Jio’s completed network build-out to lift cash generation while Airtel retains stronger returns and capital efficiency. Both
Key facts
- ~12% EBITDA CAGR for both companies through FY29
- FY29 EBITDA: $12-13 billion each
- Jio revenue CAGR: 11-12% from FY26-FY29
- Jio annual free cash flow: $5-6 billion by FY29 vs $4.1 billion in FY26
- Airtel ROIC: 21% in FY29 vs 13% in FY26
- Jio ROIC: 11% in FY29 vs 7% in FY26
- Jio subscribers: 553 million in FY29 vs 524 million in FY26
- Airtel subscribers: 388 million in FY29 vs 373 million in FY26
- Jio ARPU: Rs 259 vs Rs 212
- Airtel ARPU: Rs 318 vs Rs 256
- Two projected tariff increases of 8-10% each
- Jio estimated enterprise value: $110-160 billion
Why this matters
Jio’s network-build completion creates room to prioritize digital-platform partnerships and monetization, while Airtel’s stronger projected returns reinforce its capacity for disciplined strategic investments.