MoSPI debuts trial Services Production Index; retail trade jumps 30.8% YoY in April
The government's new high-frequency Index of Services Production covers 19 sub-sectors spanning ~60% of the services economy. April data show retail trade up 30.8% and accommodation & food services up 37.2% year-on-year, with 14 of 19 sub-sectors posting double-digit growth despite West Asia conflict; air transport lagged at -13.9%.
What happened
MoSPI · Government launched trial Index of Services Production covering retail trade, accommodation and food services. April data showed retail trade grew 30.8%
Key facts
- 19 sub-sectors
- 60% of services sector
- retail trade +30.8%
- accommodation and food services +37.2%
- air transport -13.9%
- 14 of 19 sub-sectors double-digit growth
Why this matters
A credible new government dataset covering ~60% of the services economy validates the retail and food-services growth thesis, strengthening the case for expansion and consolidation plays in these categories.
What to watch
- May-June SPI revisions and whether double-digit breadth (14/19) holds
- Air transport index trajectory as leading travel/hospitality demand proxy
- CPI/fuel inflation prints and RBI rate guidance
- Monsoon progress and rural demand read-through
- West Asia conflict escalation and Brent crude levels
- Cross-check SPI retail signal against internal footfall and same-store-sales trends by category
- Reweight discretionary and QSR/hospitality exposure upward on demand confirmation
- Model base-effect adjusted run-rate to separate real momentum from comps
- Stress-test supply chain for fuel/logistics cost pass-through from West Asia risk