Motilal Oswal forecasts around 20% passenger vehicle retail growth in September 2026
The brokerage names Maruti Suzuki, TVS Motor and Mahindra & Mahindra as its top automaker picks. Production constraints, fading base effects and commodity inflation could temper momentum in the second half of the year.
The development
Motilal Oswal forecasts around 20% passenger vehicle retail growth in September 2026 and names Maruti Suzuki, TVS Motor Company and Mahindra & Mahindra its top OEM picks. Production constraints, fading base effects and commodity inflation could temper momentum.
The numbers
- September 2026
- around 20%
Why it matters to operators and investors
Align dealer inventory and sales capacity with Motilal Oswal’s forecast of roughly 20% passenger-vehicle retail growth in September 2026, while keeping replenishment flexible given production constraints and potential second-half moderation.
What to watch next
- September registrations versus the approximately 20% growth forecast, followed by October-November growth against comparable prior-year periods.
- Wholesale shipments versus retail registrations, alongside dealer inventory days and aging stock.
- Booking-to-delivery conversion, cancellations and waiting times by model.
- Discounts, financing subsidies and net realizations: stronger volumes with rising incentives would weaken the earnings read-through.
- Production schedules, component availability and steel, aluminium and rubber costs.
The counter-case
The roughly 20% figure is a forecast, not observed demand. Growth could reflect a weak comparison base, festive timing or discount-driven purchases rather than durable momentum; production constraints and commodity inflation could also prevent strong retail demand from translating into earnings growth.