Motilal Oswal keeps 'Buy' on Kalyan, PN Gadgil and Marico, sees 18-47% upside
Brokerage flags aggressive store expansion and strong revenue growth. Kalyan (TP Rs 525, ~47% upside) added 12 stores plus 5 Candere with Q1 sales up 38% YoY. PN Gadgil (TP Rs 700, ~22%) posted 41% revenue growth and 46% SSSG. Marico (TP Rs 1,000, ~18%) eyes Rs 15,000 cr revenue by FY27 as copra prices fall ~45%.
What happened
Motilal Oswal retains 'Buy' on Kalyan Jewellers, Marico and PN Gadgil Jewellers, citing store expansion, revenue growth and margin outlook, with 18-47% upside
Key facts
- Kalyan TP Rs 525, ~47% upside
- Kalyan Q1 sales +38% YoY
- 12 new Kalyan + 5 Candere stores
- 524 total stores
- recycled gold >46% revenue, >55% June
- Marico TP Rs 1,000, ~18% upside
- copra prices down ~45%
- price cuts 15-20%
- 150-200bps EBITDA expansion FY27
- Marico revenue target Rs 15,000 cr FY27, Rs 20,000 cr FY30
- PN Gadgil TP Rs 700, ~22% upside
- PN Gadgil revenue +41% YoY, retail +56%, SSSG 46%
- PN Gadgil 25 new stores to 103
Why this matters
The jewellery expansion race toward Kalyan's 524-store base plus Marico's Rs 15,000 cr FY27 ambition on falling copra costs signals a window for consolidation and margin-driven M&A.
What to watch
- Q2 SSSG prints vs Q1 (sustainability of 38-46%)
- Gold price trajectory and its hit to jewellery volume/mix
- Copra and crude-derivative input cost trend for Marico
- Store-addition pace vs working-capital / debt on jewellery balance sheets
- Festive/wedding season demand data (Oct-Dec)
- Peer brokerages issue confirming/contrarian notes on Kalyan and PN Gadgil within 1-2 weeks
- Management guidance reiteration on store-count targets (Kalyan 524-base) at earnings calls
- Sector funds rotate into organized jewellery on formalization theme
- Marico investor updates on copra-driven margin flow-through and Rs 15,000cr FY27 path
Also reported by
- Financial Express · BrandWagon — Same time