Motilal Oswal sees nearly 50% upside in Vishal Mega Mart, sets ₹165 target

Motilal Oswal retained its bullish view on Vishal Mega Mart after June-quarter revenue rose nearly 19% year on year. The brokerage cited margin expansion, private-label momentum and store additions, projecting 19% revenue and 27% PAT CAGRs for FY26–FY29E.

— Source publishedMon, 27 Jul, 2026, 10:50 IST·First seen Mon, 27 Jul, 2026, 11:12 IST·Source Financial Express · BrandWagon

What happened

Motilal Oswal retained a bullish view on Vishal Mega Mart, setting a Rs 165 target versus a share price near Rs 110. It cited 19% June-quarter revenue growth,

Key facts

  • Share price around Rs 110
  • Motilal Oswal target price: Rs 165
  • Implied upside: nearly 50%
  • June-quarter revenue growth: nearly 19% YoY
  • Pre-Ind AS EBITDA margin: 10.2%
  • Pre-Ind AS EBITDA growth: 22% YoY
  • PAT growth: 26% YoY
  • FY26-FY29E revenue CAGR: 19%
  • FY26-FY29E pre-Ind AS EBITDA CAGR: 24%
  • FY26-FY29E PAT CAGR: 27%

Why this matters

Vishal Mega Mart’s combination of rapid store rollout and growing private-label penetration strengthens its strategic appeal as a scaled value-retail platform with improving profitability.

What to watch

  • Revenue growth sustaining near or above 19% year on year.
  • PAT growth tracking toward the projected 27% FY26-FY29 CAGR.
  • Quarterly gross-margin and EBITDA-margin expansion.
  • Private-label mix growth and evidence of repeat purchases.
  • Store-opening pace, new-store productivity and payback periods.
  • Same-store sales resilience during festive and non-festive quarters.
  • Competitive pricing actions by DMart, Reliance Retail, regional chains and e-commerce platforms.
  • Any increase in inventory days, discounting or shrinkage that signals margin risk.
  • Track quarterly same-store sales growth versus new-store-led revenue growth to assess underlying demand quality.
  • Monitor gross-margin and EBITDA-margin progression for evidence that private labels and scale are improving profitability.
  • Watch store additions, maturity curves and capex intensity; aggressive expansion can boost sales while temporarily diluting returns.
  • Compare inventory days, working-capital needs and markdown activity against value-retail peers for early signs of promotional pressure.
  • Look for management commentary on rural demand, entry-level consumer spending and private-label penetration.