Motilal Oswal starts Aditya Infotech coverage with Buy, sees 27% upside
Motilal Oswal initiated coverage on CP Plus operator Aditya Infotech with a Rs 4,200 target price versus Rs 3,304 currently. The brokerage forecasts 44% revenue CAGR over FY26-FY28E and EBITDA margin expansion to 16%, citing AI-led surveillance demand and STQC norms.
What happened
Aditya Infotech (CP Plus) · Motilal Oswal initiated Buy coverage on CP Plus operator Aditya Infotech, citing AI-led surveillance growth and STQC norms. It set a
Key facts
- Buy rating
- Target price: Rs 4,200
- Current market price: Rs 3,304
- Implied upside: 27%
- Revenue CAGR forecast: 44% over FY26-FY28E
- EBITDA margin forecast: 16% by FY28E versus 13.4% in FY26
Why this matters
The coverage highlights AI-enabled security technology and regulatory certification as strategic growth levers, potentially strengthening Aditya Infotech’s case for ecosystem partnerships and capability-led expansion.
What to watch
- STQC enforcement timelines and eligible-product certification announcements.
- Large central/state government surveillance tender awards and execution milestones.
- Quarterly order-book growth, distributor inventory levels and receivables days.
- Evidence of price competition from Chinese-origin and domestic camera brands.
- Semiconductor, imaging-sensor and currency-cost movements affecting hardware margins.
- Management guidance upgrades or cuts to revenue growth, margin and capital-expenditure plans.
- Track quarterly revenue growth against the implied FY26-FY28 44% CAGR path.
- Monitor EBITDA margin progression toward 16%, especially gross margin, channel incentives and employee costs.
- Watch government and enterprise tender wins tied to STQC-compliant surveillance products.
- Assess whether AI-camera mix and recurring software/service revenue are growing faster than legacy hardware sales.
- Compare valuation and growth delivery with domestic surveillance peers and global security-camera vendors.