Motilal Oswal starts Meesho at Buy, sees 30% upside to Rs 240

Motilal Oswal has initiated coverage on Meesho with a Buy rating and Rs 240 target price, citing its asset-light, negative-working-capital marketplace model. The brokerage forecasts roughly 25% NMV CAGR through FY31 and contribution-margin expansion.

— Source publishedMon, 27 Jul, 2026, 12:42 IST·First seen Mon, 27 Jul, 2026, 13:24 IST·Source NDTV Profit

What happened

Motilal Oswal initiated Buy coverage on Indian e-commerce marketplace Meesho, setting a Rs 240 target price and projecting 30% upside. The brokerage cites

Key facts

  • Buy rating
  • target price Rs 240
  • 30% potential upside
  • ~25% NMV CAGR over FY26-31
  • FY31 contribution margin ~6.7%
  • base-case contribution margin ~7.5%
  • ~80 basis points
  • bull case Rs 335
  • bear case Rs 140

Why this matters

Meesho’s expected scale and improving unit economics could strengthen its position as a partner, acquisition target, or competitive threat across value e-commerce, seller services, logistics, and fintech.

What to watch

  • Quarterly NMV/GMV growth versus the approximately 25% FY31 CAGR underwriting.
  • Contribution-margin trajectory, especially fulfillment, returns, incentives and customer-acquisition costs as a share of NMV.
  • Evidence that advertising and seller services increase revenue quality without weakening marketplace seller economics.
  • Repeat-rate, active-user growth and order-frequency trends in non-metro and value-conscious cohorts.
  • Movement in net working capital, seller-payable cycles and cash-flow conversion.
  • Competitive discounting, delivery-speed investments or category pushes by Amazon, Flipkart and quick-commerce platforms.
  • Any changes in e-commerce, consumer-protection, data, tax or marketplace-seller regulations.
  • Increase focus on higher-frequency categories, regional-language discovery and value-led assortments to deepen penetration beyond major metros.
  • Expand monetization from seller advertising, logistics, payments and fulfillment services while limiting take-rate pressure on small merchants.
  • Use improved demand visibility to optimize shipping density, returns management and seller-quality controls, targeting contribution-margin expansion.
  • Balance growth investments against evidence of operating leverage, as investor attention shifts from NMV growth to EBITDA and cash-flow conversion.
  • Defend seller supply and consumer pricing against Amazon, Flipkart and quick-commerce-led category encroachment.