Motilal Oswal starts Meesho with Buy, sees 30%+ upside on Bharat marketplace growth

The brokerage projects Meesho marketplace NMV to grow 25% annually from FY26 to FY31, with adjusted EBITDA and net-profit break-even by FY28. It cites the platform’s asset-light model, Tier 2+ user base and scope to expand advertising, content-commerce and Mall monetisation.

— FiledMon, 27 Jul, 2026, 15:16 IST·First seen Mon, 27 Jul, 2026, 15:16 IST·Source Financial Express · BrandWagon

What happened

Motilal Oswal initiated Meesho coverage with a Buy and Rs 240 target, citing its asset-light Bharat-focused marketplace model. The brokerage forecasts 25% NMV

Key facts

  • Buy rating with Rs 240 target price, implying over 30% upside
  • 274 million annual transacting users
  • Over 280 crore orders in the past 12 months
  • 88% of users from Tier 2+ markets
  • Online retail was 7% of India retail sales in CY24
  • Negative working capital of 25 days of NMV
  • Marketplace NMV forecast to grow at 25% CAGR in FY26-FY31
  • Adjusted EBITDA and net-profit break-even expected by FY28
  • Adjusted EBITDA forecast at Rs 4,800 crore by FY31
  • Advertising contributes 3% of NMV versus 9% seller demand
  • Content commerce generated over Rs 1,200 crore NMV in H1 FY26
  • Contribution margin forecast to improve 400 bps to 7.5% by FY31

Why this matters

Strategic partners and competitors should view Meesho’s push into ads, content commerce and Mall monetisation as an opening for acquisitions, integrations or distribution alliances targeting value-conscious Tier 2+ consumers.

What to watch

  • Quarterly NMV growth versus the 25% FY26-FY31 CAGR assumption.
  • Adjusted EBITDA trajectory, contribution margin per order and any revision to the FY28 break-even target.
  • Advertising revenue penetration, seller adoption of paid tools and ad monetisation per transaction.
  • Meesho Mall assortment growth, branded-seller participation and changes in average order value.
  • Customer-acquisition spending, repeat-order rates and Tier 2+ active-user growth.
  • Logistics cost per shipment, return rates and delivery-speed improvements.
  • Competitive pricing, seller incentives and category expansion by Amazon, Flipkart and quick-commerce operators.
  • Prioritise ad-tech and seller-funded discovery products to increase revenue without raising consumer prices.
  • Expand Meesho Mall and branded assortment selectively in categories where trust, repeat purchases and higher basket values offset fulfilment costs.
  • Use Tier 2+ demand density to improve shipment consolidation, reduce last-mile cost per order and lower return-to-origin rates.
  • Invest in content-commerce, vernacular discovery and creator-led acquisition to defend engagement against social and quick-commerce channels.
  • Tighten unit-economics discipline by reducing broad subsidies and concentrating incentives on high-retention cohorts and strategic categories.

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