Motilal Oswal stays Neutral on Tata Chemicals with Rs 700 target
Motilal Oswal cited resilient India operations but continued pressure from overseas soda ash oversupply. It sees longer-term support from solar glass, EV demand and specialty and battery diversification, forecasting 10% revenue CAGR and 27% EBITDA CAGR over FY26-FY28.
What happened
Motilal Oswal retained a Neutral rating on Tata Chemicals with a Rs 700 target, citing persistent global soda ash oversupply despite strong India operations. It
Key facts
- Revenue CAGR: 10% over FY26-FY28
- EBITDA CAGR: 27% over FY26-FY28
- Target price: Rs 700
Why this matters
Solar glass, EV materials and specialty chemicals diversification strengthen Tata Chemicals’ long-term portfolio rationale, though overseas soda ash exposure remains a strategic drag.
What to watch
- Quarterly soda ash prices, inventory levels and capacity curtailments in North America, Europe and China.
- India soda ash demand from glass, detergents and industrial customers.
- Management commentary on overseas EBITDA losses, plant utilization and cost savings.
- Order wins, capex announcements or partnerships in battery materials, recycling, solar glass and specialty chemicals.
- Changes in energy costs, freight rates, import competition and currency movements.
- Evidence that FY26-FY28 revenue and EBITDA growth is tracking the projected 10% and 27% CAGR, respectively.
- Prioritize cost control, energy efficiency and capacity utilization at overseas soda ash operations.
- Increase mix of specialty chemicals and higher-value battery-materials businesses to reduce dependence on commodity soda ash cycles.
- Advance domestic opportunities tied to solar glass, lithium-ion batteries and EV supply chains.
- Maintain disciplined capital allocation until overseas pricing visibility improves.