Nomura backs M&M, Hyundai, Ather and TVS ahead of Q2FY27 auto sales data
Dealers expect September passenger-vehicle and medium- and heavy-commercial-vehicle retail sales to rise more than 20%, while tractor sales could fall by over 20%, shaping the Q2FY27 outlook.
The development
Indian auto dealers expect September passenger-vehicle and M&HCV retail sales to grow over 20 per cent each, while tractor sales may decline over 20 per cent. Nomura prefers M&M, Hyundai Motor India, Ather Energy and TVS Motor ahead of Q2FY27 data.
The numbers
- over 20 per cent
- Q2FY27
- July–September 2026
Why it matters to operators and investors
Nomura’s preference for M&M, Hyundai, Ather and TVS is supported by expected double-digit PV and M&HCV retail growth, though tractor weakness remains a material offset for rural-exposed names.
What to watch next
- September Vahan retail registrations for PV, M&HCV, tractors and two-wheelers.
- Company-reported wholesale volumes versus retail growth, indicating whether dealer inventory is rising or clearing.
- Festival-season booking trends, cancellation rates, waiting periods and dealer discount levels.
- Tractor demand indicators including monsoon distribution, reservoir levels, crop prices, rural wage growth and agri-credit disbursements.
- M&HCV fleet utilization, freight rates, infrastructure spending and replacement-demand commentary.
The counter-case
The upbeat call rests heavily on dealer expectations for one month of retail data, which may not translate into sustained Q2 demand or earnings. Passenger-vehicle growth above 20% could reflect festive-season timing, low comparables, discounting, or inventory replenishment rather than durable volume momentum. Strong M&HCV retail can also be cyclical and vulnerable to freight-rate, infrastructure-spending, financing, and fleet-utilisation weakness. A tractor decline of more than 20% may signal rural-income or monsoon-related stress that could eventually affect entry-level two-wheelers, small commercial vehicles, and mass-market PV demand. Higher incentives, adverse model mix, commodity costs, and financing pressure could limit margin upside even if unit sales beat expectations.