Nomura bets on India hotel boom: IHCL, Leela lead with 12-15% ADR surge as domestic demand offsets foreign dip
Nomura sees Indian hotels riding resilient domestic travel through FY26-FY28, with Q4 revenue up 12% YoY and EBITDA up 9%. Super-luxury players EIH and Leela posted ADR gains of 12-15% but ceded 4-6% occupancy. Buy calls on IHCL (TP Rs 800) and Leela (TP Rs 530), with sector EBITDA growth pegged at 14-16% and FY26 margins near 37.3%.
What happened
Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) · Nomura expects Indian hotel sector to grow on resilient domestic demand offsetting foreign tourist dip; super-luxury players EIH
Key facts
- Q4 revenue +12% YoY
- Q4 EBITDA +9% YoY
- EIH/Leela ADR +12-15%
- IHCL ADR +9%
- Ventive ADR +12%
- super-luxury occupancy -4-6%
- FY27 EBITDA growth 14%
- FY28 EBITDA growth 16%
- FY26 margins 37.3%
- EV/EBITDA ~15x FY28
- IHCL TP Rs 800
- Leela TP Rs 530
Why this matters
Super-luxury ADR surges of 12-15% at EIH and Leela signal pricing power that could justify premium multiples for luxury-tilted M&A or portfolio additions.