Nomura starts Meesho at Reduce, sees nearly 24% downside to Rs 167
Nomura says Meesho’s valuation is rich versus Eternal and Swiggy despite a projected 23% NMV CAGR from FY27 to FY30. The brokerage expects margins to improve through advertising and logistics, but flags competition and execution risks.
What happened
Nomura initiated Meesho with a Reduce rating and Rs 167 target, citing premium valuation versus Eternal and Swiggy. It expects value-commerce growth and margin
Key facts
- Nomura target price: Rs 167 per share
- Target implies nearly 24% downside
- Expected NMV CAGR: 23% from FY27 to FY30
- Valmo logistics partners: approximately 18,000
- Adjusted EBITDA margin forecast: 2.9% by FY30 versus -1.2% in Q1 FY27
What changed
Nomura initiated Meesho with a Reduce rating and Rs 167 target, citing premium valuation versus Eternal and Swiggy. It expects value-commerce growth and margin improvement but flags competition from Amazon, Flipkart and quick commerce, plus logistics disruption risks.
Why this matters
Nomura’s Reduce rating and Rs 167 target imply nearly 24% downside, arguing that Meesho’s valuation already prices in growth and margin improvement versus peers.
What to watch
- Quarterly NMV growth versus the implied 23% FY27-FY30 CAGR.
- Advertising revenue growth and take-rate expansion.
- Contribution margin and adjusted EBITDA progression after logistics and incentives.
- Customer-acquisition costs, order frequency, active transacting users and repeat-purchase trends.
- Competitive discounting or seller-subsidy actions by Amazon, Flipkart, Eternal and Swiggy.