Paytm could see bigger upside than Pine Labs if UPI MDR returns
A proposed framework for merchant UPI charges above Rs 2,000 could reopen a sizeable revenue pool. Jefferies estimates Paytm could add Rs 300 crore–Rs 730 crore in MDR revenue by FY28, versus Rs 50 crore–Rs 150 crore for Pine Labs, subject to RBI and NPCI action.
A proposed payments-law amendment could restore UPI MDR above Rs 2,000. Jefferies sees Paytm as the larger beneficiary, with Pine Labs also gaining. Both reported profitable Q1 FY27 growth, driven by merchant expansion, payments volumes and AI investments.
Why this matters
Paytm’s potential MDR upside follows recent block deals in which Elevation affiliates and SAIF Partners/Elevation Capital sold stakes worth about ₹2,038 crore.
Retail-company signals are accelerating, up 167078% QoQ.