Proposed UPI MDR would have limited impact on Eternal and Swiggy, says Elara
A potential 0.4% MDR on UPI transactions above ₹2,000 could trim Eternal’s FY27 EBITDA by 0.6% and Swiggy’s by 0.4%, Elara Securities estimates. Higher-ticket retailers Nykaa and DMart face larger projected impacts of 2.6% and 2.1%, respectively.
What happened
Elara Securities estimates a proposed 0.4% UPI MDR above ₹2,000 would have limited EBITDA impact on Eternal and Swiggy due to low order values, while
Key facts
- Potential MDR: 0.4% on UPI transactions above ₹2,000
- Zomato food-delivery ANOV: ₹381
- Blinkit AOV: ₹540
- Eternal incremental MDR cost: ₹182 million
- Zomato MDR cost: ₹63 million
- Blinkit MDR cost: ₹119 million
- Eternal FY27 EBITDA impact: 0.6%
- Assumption: 5% of transactions above ₹2,000; 70% UPI-based
- Swiggy food-delivery ANOV: ₹405
- Instamart ANOV: ₹518
- Swiggy incremental MDR cost: ₹86 million
- Swiggy food-delivery MDR cost: ₹47 million
- Instamart MDR cost: ₹39 million
- Swiggy EBITDA impact: 0.4%
- Nykaa EBITDA impact: 2.6%; MDR cost: ₹299 million
- DMart EBITDA impact: 2.1%; MDR cost: ₹1.27 billion
Why this matters
Transaction and partnership models targeting higher-ticket retail should account for greater payments-cost exposure, whereas low-AOV delivery platforms retain a comparative margin advantage.
What to watch
- Finance Ministry, RBI and NPCI clarification on whether MDR is mandatory, voluntary, capped, subsidized or category-specific.
- Final transaction threshold, effective date, exemptions for small merchants and treatment of payment aggregators.
- UPI share of GMV and average order value trends at Nykaa, DMart, Eternal and Swiggy.
- Any increase in checkout payment steering, card/wallet promotions, cash-on-delivery use or conversion abandonment.
- Payment acceptance cost commentary, take-rate changes and EBITDA guidance revisions in quarterly earnings calls.
- Evidence that the proposed charge is broadened below ₹2,000 or extended to additional UPI transaction types.
- Model payment-cost exposure by order-value band rather than total UPI GMV; disclose the share of transactions above ₹2,000 where possible.
- Test checkout nudges for low-cost payment rails without impairing conversion, including UPI Lite-like flows where relevant, wallets, cards, store credit and cash-on-delivery for eligible categories.
- For Nykaa and DMart, review shipping thresholds, assortment-led basket building and promotional funding to offset MDR on higher-value carts.
- Renegotiate acquiring and payment-aggregator contracts, seeking blended pricing, volume rebates and merchant-funded routing optimization.
- For Eternal and Swiggy, monitor rising quick-commerce average order values and large-format grocery expansion, which could shift more transactions above the threshold even if current exposure is low.