Reliance and Nayara gain export-margin support as fuel supply disruptions reshape markets
Indian export-focused refiners are benefiting from uncertainty around Middle East and Russian fuel supplies. Higher domestic demand could limit export volumes, while rising Chinese fuel exports may increase competition across Asian markets through 2026.
What happened
Indian export-focused refiners including Reliance and Nayara are benefiting from disrupted Middle East and Russian fuel supplies, supporting higher export
Key facts
- U.S. distillate exports reached 1.9 million barrels per day in the week ended August 7
- U.S. jet fuel exports were 443,000 barrels per day
- Global refining throughput was about 89 million barrels per day in July, down 5 million barrels per day year-on-year
- Indonesia's August gasoline consumption was 11-12 million barrels
- China fuel exports rose to 1.1 million tons in July from 240,860 tons in June
- Asian gasoline inventories are forecast to average 197 million barrels for the rest of 2026
- U.S. diesel margins exceeded $102 per barrel
Why this matters
Refiners may prioritize supply-security, logistics, and trading partnerships that protect feedstock access and preserve export optionality as Asian fuel markets become more competitive.
What to watch
- Singapore gasoline, diesel and jet fuel crack spreads versus Brent.
- Indian monthly gasoline, diesel and ATF demand growth and refinery utilization rates.
- Chinese refined-product export quotas, customs shipment data and inventory trends.
- Middle East shipping disruptions, freight rates, insurance costs and Red Sea route diversions.
- Russian product export flows and enforcement changes affecting sanctioned barrels.
- Indian government fuel-price interventions, excise-tax changes or inventory directives.
- Prioritize diesel, jet fuel and gasoline export destinations with the strongest netbacks rather than maximizing volumes.
- Increase domestic retail fuel availability and dealer supply reliability if local demand begins absorbing incremental refinery output.
- Use crude and product hedging to protect refining margins against abrupt normalization of supply disruptions.
- Shift product mix toward middle distillates and aviation fuel where regional dislocations remain most pronounced.
- Protect commercial and fleet accounts with targeted pricing and assured supply, while avoiding broad retail pump-price discounting.