Resurfacing a June move: HDFC Securities had started Ather Energy at Buy, seeing 31% upside
HDFC Securities initiated coverage of Ather Energy with a Buy rating and 31% expected upside back on June 10, 2025. The April–June roundup, now resurfacing, also highlighted potential EV production risk from China's rare-earth export curbs and the expiry of a share lock-in period.
What happened
HDFC Securities initiated Ather Energy with a Buy rating and 31% expected upside. The roundup also flagged China’s rare-earth export curb as a risk to Indian EV
Key facts
- 31% expected upside
- nearly 6% of shares
- May 29, 2025
- June 10, 2025
- April 2025
Why this matters
Ather’s favorable analyst coverage supports strategic momentum, but partnership and sourcing decisions should prioritize rare-earth diversification while monitoring post-lock-in ownership changes.
What to watch
- Evidence of production cuts, delivery delays, or revised guidance linked to rare-earth availability.
- Material increases in motor, battery, or imported-component costs and any resulting price hikes.
- Lock-in expiry dates followed by elevated volumes, large shareholder disclosures, or block transactions.
- Quarterly market-share gains in electric scooters alongside improving gross margin or EBITDA metrics.
- Further analyst upgrades, target-price revisions, or evidence that institutional buying is absorbing unlocked supply.
- Monitor Ather's quarterly delivery growth, production guidance, and dealer-network expansion.
- Assess management disclosure on rare-earth magnet inventories, alternate suppliers, motor redesigns, and input-cost hedging.
- Watch post-lock-in trading volumes, block deals, promoter/investor ownership changes, and institutional absorption.
- Compare Ather's pricing, incentives, and market-share trajectory with Ola Electric, TVS, Bajaj, and Hero MotoCorp.
- Track any Indian policy support for domestic rare-earth processing, component localization, or EV manufacturing incentives.