Resurfacing an October 2023 forecast: ICRA projected Indian EV penetration to accelerate across vehicle segments by FY25

In a report from late October 2023, ICRA forecast electric two-wheeler penetration to rise from nearly 5% in FY23 to 10-12% by FY25, with electric three-wheelers reaching 14-16%, buses 11-13% and cars 4-6%.

— Source publishedTue, 31 Oct, 2023, 16:44 IST·First seen Sun, 27 Sept, 2026, 11:40 IST·Source Business Standard (via Wayback)

What happened

ICRA forecasts strong Indian EV adoption by FY25, led by electric two-wheelers, with growing penetration in three-wheelers, buses and cars supported by

Key facts

  • Electric two-wheelers accounted for 85-90% of total EV sales in FY23
  • Electric two-wheeler penetration reached nearly 5% of overall two-wheeler sales in FY23
  • Electric two-wheeler penetration projected at 10-12% in FY25
  • Electric three-wheeler penetration was 7% in FY23 excluding rickshaws
  • Electric three-wheeler penetration projected at 14-16% in FY25
  • More than 1,800 electric buses sold in FY23
  • Electric bus penetration projected at 11-13% in FY25
  • Electric car penetration projected at 4-6% in FY25

Why this matters

The widening EV adoption outlook strengthens the case for partnerships or acquisitions in charging, fleet electrification, battery services and EV-focused logistics across India.

What to watch

  • Continuation, redesign or withdrawal of central and state EV purchase incentives.
  • Monthly electric two-wheeler and three-wheeler registrations versus overall vehicle registrations.
  • Battery-cell and lithium input prices, along with retail EV price gaps versus ICE alternatives.
  • Expansion of public charging, battery-swapping stations and dealer-authorized service networks.
  • Financing approval rates, loan-to-value terms and insurance premiums for electric vehicles.
  • New EV launches below key mass-market price points and dealer inventory levels.
  • Fleet electrification commitments from e-commerce, quick-commerce, ride-hailing and logistics companies.
  • Auto and mobility retailers should expand EV-specific sales floors, trained service technicians and battery-diagnostics capabilities, especially for two- and three-wheelers.
  • Consumer-electronics and accessory retailers should bundle home charging equipment, power accessories, helmets, connected devices and protection plans with EV purchases.
  • Retail lenders and insurers should develop battery-inclusive financing, residual-value products and commercial-fleet leasing offers.
  • Quick-commerce, food-delivery and parcel operators should negotiate fleet procurement and charging partnerships, increasing EV volume demand for dealers and service retailers.
  • Organized retailers should prioritize EV-related inventory and service points in metros, tier-1 cities and high-density delivery clusters before pursuing nationwide rollout.

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