Tata PV, M&M could gain share under CAFE III norms, Nomura says
Nomura estimates FY28 EV penetration requirements of 4-7 per cent for Tata Motor Passenger Vehicle and 13-15 per cent for Mahindra & Mahindra under notified CAFE 2027 norms. Both could gain market share if EV penetration rises faster.
Read the source at Business Today · LatestThe numbers
| Maruti Suzuki FY28 required EV penetration: | 1-3 per cent |
|---|---|
| Annual required EV mix increase: | around 1-2 percentage points |
Why it matters to operators and investors
Nomura sees potential market-share gains for Tata PV and M&M if EV adoption outpaces CAFE III compliance requirements, making actual EV sales mix a key indicator to monitor.
What to watch next
- Published CAFE 2027 requirements versus Nomura's estimates
- Tata PV's FY28 EV sales mix versus 4–7%
- M&M's FY28 EV sales mix versus 13–15%
- Company announcements of broader EV incentives
- Market-share gains alongside EV mix above compliance requirements
The counter-case
Lower estimated EV compliance requirements do not automatically translate into market-share gains. Tata PV and M&M still need competitive products, pricing and delivery execution. Faster EV adoption could benefit rival launches just as much, while discounting and EV investment could dilute profits even if volumes rise.