TNAU sees harvest-season groundnut prices at ₹65-70/kg
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University forecasts groundnut prices of ₹65-70 per kg in the upcoming harvest season, a procurement signal for edible-oil, confectionery and livestock-feed buyers amid expectations of lower arrivals and monsoon-linked volatility.
What happened
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU) · TNAU forecasts groundnut prices of ₹65-70 per kg during the upcoming harvest season. The outlook is relevant to
Key facts
- ₹65-70 per kg forecast groundnut harvest price
- 119.42 lakh tonnes India groundnut output in 2024-25
- 57.62 lakh hectares harvested in 2024-25
- 2,073 kg/hectare India productivity in 2024-25
- 3.17% increase in area under crop in 2025-26
- 3.15 lakh hectares Tamil Nadu groundnut area in 2024-25
- 7.69 lakh tonnes Tamil Nadu production in 2024-25
- 2,439 kg/hectare Tamil Nadu productivity
Why this matters
Groundnut supply uncertainty may strengthen the strategic case for sourcing partnerships, storage assets or regional processing integration in Tamil Nadu’s edible-oil value chain.
What to watch
- Actual harvest arrivals versus seasonal norms at key Tamil Nadu and neighboring-state mandis.
- Rainfall distribution, late-season weather damage and crop-quality reports during harvest and drying.
- Groundnut oil and oilcake price spreads relative to soybean, sunflower and palm-based alternatives.
- Export demand, especially for edible-grade kernels, and domestic demand from crushers and confectionery processors.
- Government procurement, import-policy changes, stock-release measures or transport disruptions.
- Farm-gate and wholesale prices sustaining above ₹70/kg or falling below ₹65/kg for multiple trading sessions.
- Lock a portion of harvest-season requirements through phased contracts rather than full spot-market exposure.
- Build supplier coverage across Tamil Nadu and neighboring producing regions to reduce localized weather and arrival risk.
- Set procurement trigger bands around ₹65/kg and ₹70/kg, with pre-approved volumes and hedging or substitution actions for each threshold.
- Review pass-through timing for groundnut oil, peanut snacks, confectionery and feed products, prioritizing high-exposure SKUs.
- Monitor oilcake economics, since higher groundnut prices can raise livestock-feed input costs even if edible-oil margins remain protected.