UAE gold imports surge 5x to $16.5B as CEPA duty edge reshapes India's bullion sourcing
Gold inflows from UAE jumped from $2.9B in 2022 to $16.5B in 2025 under the India-UAE CEPA, lifting Dubai's share to 28% from 7.9%. A 2024 duty cut to 6% and 1-point tariff edge are pressuring jewellery retail sourcing economics, with quotas set to scale to 200 tonnes by 2027.
What happened
Gold imports from UAE under India-UAE CEPA surged from $2.9B in 2022 to $16.5B in 2025, with Dubai's share rising to 28%. The 1-point tariff advantage and 2024
Key facts
- $2.9B gold imports 2022
- $16.5B gold imports 2025
- 120 tonnes initial quota
- 200 tonnes quota by 2027
- duty cut 15% to 6%
- 5% effective UAE duty
- Dubai share 7.9% to 28%
- $72B total gold imports 2026
Why this matters
Evaluate JV or refining tie-ups in DMCC/Dubai to internalize the CEPA arbitrage before competitors lock up UAE bullion supply lanes.