Uday Kotak flags India’s gold imports rising to $88-90 billion in FY27
Kotak Mahindra Bank founder Uday Kotak warned that India’s gross gold imports could climb to $88-90 billion in FY27, from an estimated $72 billion in FY26. The outlook signals a potentially tougher input-cost and import environment for jewellery retailers, while renewing calls to mobilise household gold.
What happened
Kotak Mahindra Bank · Uday Kotak warned India’s gross gold imports could reach $88-90 billion in FY27, potentially affecting the jewellery category’s input and
Key facts
- $88-90 billion projected gross gold imports in FY27
- $72 billion gross gold imports in FY26
- $25 billion FY26 current account deficit
- Around $60 billion projected current account deficit
- $90 average oil-price assumption
- Consolidated fiscal deficit above 7%
Why this matters
The import outlook strengthens the case for partnerships or acquisitions in gold recycling, refining, exchange and household-gold mobilisation to reduce reliance on imported metal.
What to watch
- Gold prices in INR and the INR/USD exchange rate.
- Monthly gold-import value versus estimated import volumes, distinguishing price inflation from physical demand.
- Current-account deficit trends and any government commentary on gold duties, recycling or monetisation.
- Jewellery-chain disclosures on same-store sales, volume growth, inventory days, gold-metal loans and gross margins.
- Consumer trade-in volumes, lightweight-jewellery mix and demand during wedding and festival seasons.
- Increase old-gold exchange, buyback and recycling programmes to reduce dependence on newly imported bullion.
- Tighten inventory turns and expand gold-metal loan, hedging and rate-protection usage where feasible.
- Push lightweight, lower-carat and studded assortments that preserve ticket accessibility and making-charge contribution.
- Use transparent pricing, certified purity and exchange-value guarantees to win customers from unorganised jewellers.
- Stress-test store expansion and working-capital plans against higher gold prices, rupee depreciation and slower unit-volume growth.