UPI MDR move could lift Paytm and Pine Labs earnings, brokerages say
NPCI’s 0.4% MDR on select merchant UPI payments above Rs 2,000, effective Oct. 15, could create a Rs 10,000-20,600 crore annual revenue pool. Banks are expected to capture most fees, while brokerages forecast meaningful FY28-FY29 EBITDA upside for Paytm and Pine Labs.
What happened
Paytm · NPCI’s 0.4% MDR on select high-value merchant UPI payments could create a Rs 10,000-20,600 crore annual revenue pool. Brokerages expect banks to capture
Key facts
- 0.4% MDR on person-to-merchant UPI payments above Rs 2,000
- MDR capped at Rs 300 for payments of Rs 75,000 and above
- Rs 10,000-15,000 crore UBS annual revenue-pool estimate
- Rs 16,000-17,000 crore Citi annual ecosystem-revenue estimate
- Rs 17,000 crore JPMorgan maximum revenue-pool estimate
- Rs 20,600 crore Goldman Sachs industry revenue-pool estimate
- Paytm FY28/FY29 EBITDA upside estimated at 38-48% by Morgan Stanley
- Pine Labs adjusted EBITDA upside estimated at 24-29% by Morgan Stanley
Why this matters
The policy shift makes merchant acquiring, UPI routing and value-added payment services more strategically valuable, potentially opening partnership or acquisition opportunities around Paytm, Pine Labs and bank-led platforms.