UPI’s retail-payment dominance spotlights India’s next fintech infrastructure opportunity
India’s payment systems grew 35% by volume in 2024-25, with digital transactions accounting for 99.9% of non-cash retail payments. Brookfield vice chair Ron Kalifa says the next opportunity is the infrastructure behind payments—identity, compliance and reconciliation.
What happened
Brookfield vice chair Ron Kalifa argues India’s next finance opportunity lies in payment, identity, compliance and reconciliation infrastructure, citing UPI’s
Key facts
- India's payment systems grew 35% in volume in 2024-25
- Digital transactions accounted for 99.9% of non-cash retail payments
- UPI held 84% of retail payment volume
- Global account ownership reached 76% of adults, versus 51% in 2011
- Digital wallets processed an estimated $13.9 trillion in 2023 and are projected to exceed $25 trillion by 2027
Why this matters
Strategic buyers should target or partner with Indian payments-infrastructure platforms that can monetize UPI-scale transaction flows through reconciliation, merchant operations, compliance and identity services.
What to watch
- RBI or NPCI rules on merchant KYC, fraud liability, transaction limits, data sharing and UPI interoperability.
- Growth in UPI AutoPay, credit-on-UPI, delegated payments and business-to-business UPI adoption.
- Merchant demand for unified settlement visibility across online marketplaces, store POS, social commerce and delivery platforms.
- Rising payment-failure, fraud or refund rates that make reconciliation automation a board-level cost-control issue.
- Acquisitions or funding rounds involving Indian identity, compliance, ledgering, fraud and payment-orchestration providers.
- Prioritize vendors that solve merchant reconciliation across UPI, cards, wallets, COD and marketplace settlements rather than single-rail payment acceptance.
- Build or partner for real-time transaction matching, GST-ready reporting, refund visibility and exception management for finance teams.
- Use UPI transaction data, with appropriate consent and privacy controls, to improve fraud models, repeat-customer recognition and credit underwriting.
- Target high-volume, fragmented merchant categories such as kirana networks, quick commerce sellers, restaurant chains, pharmacies and omnichannel specialty retail.
- Evaluate infrastructure partners on bank connectivity, uptime, dispute tooling, audit trails, data residency and ability to support future cross-border payment rails.